Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to
counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The
assumption of independence is often made in good faith; however, rarely is considertion given to
whether a systemic failure has occurred. Taking this into account can cause certainty in a hypothesis to
decrease as the evidence for it becomes apparently stronger. Even with very low systemic failure rates,
high confidence is surprisingly difficult to achieve. This apparent paradox will be explained in an
accessible way, and we will draw upon interesting examples.
Co-sponsored by: Retired Engineers Group
Speaker(s): Derek,
Bldg: Level 11, Engineers Australia, 108, King William Street, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, 5000
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